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        彭博數據解讀:中國國企改革



        筆譯:彭博數據解讀:中國國企改革



        本文原載于Bloomberg

        編譯/雨山 & eve

         

        譯讀:T-Read | 譯讀小號二世:WinnieTheFool

         

        距習立誓國企改革已經過去三年,國企目前卻每況愈下。不僅鋼鐵等傳統的“大煙囪”行業如此,消費和醫療行業也開始萎靡。

         

        為了判斷中國國企改革的進度,彭博選擇了346家國有企業,追蹤統計了從2012年(習于2013年3月上任)到去年,各企業股本回報率,資產收益率,利息保障倍數,財務杠桿和應收賬款周轉天數的變化。

         

        如下文五個表格所示,不僅煤礦業和鋼鐵制造業存在問題,必需消費品和醫療保健行業也存在經營僵化的情況。除了類似中國廣核集團的公用事業單位,國企涉及的經濟分支幾乎都存在嚴重問題,不是負債率過高就是投資回報率偏低。即便是科技公司,盈利率和資產收益率也都不高。

         

        未經改革的國企無論曾經怎樣希望滿滿,如今都早已令人大失所望。盡管政府仍堅持對僵化國企進行大整改,但其在維系經濟運行上取得的成績又減少了整改的動力。物價在回升,房地產市場開始復蘇,上證A股較一月低谷期上升了11%。然而,這并不是好消息,因為習一直大肆吹噓改革能動搖中國肚滿腸肥的企業集團的根基,這些消息會成為其自滿的理由。

         

        高杠桿和低效率已經不僅限于必需消費品行業和造船業。另外,由于負債支撐的增長模式或將卷土重來,政府是否真心要收拾爛攤子,尚需若干年方有定論。

         

        國企資金回收速度

        應收賬款周轉天數

        從上至下依次為:

        工業、科技、醫療衛生保健、房地產、公用事業、必需消費品、證券、能源與材料、非必需消費品、通訊

        數據來自:彭博社

         

        機車制造業和造船業等部門的工業企業,如今的應收賬款周轉日期平均都達到了106天。難怪這些國企成為政府改革的切入口。改革雖已取得一些進展,但還沒有收到足夠的成效。去年12月,中國遠洋運輸集團與中國海運集團兼并,希望借此能夠增加在產能過剩、貿易減緩的造船業中的談判籌碼。去年6月,中國北車集團與中國南車集團合并成立中國中車,以在機車車輛裝備制造領域對抗來自德國西門子等企業的競爭。

         


        國有企業盈利水平

        股本回報率

        從上至下依次為:

        必需消費品、房地產、非必需消費品、通訊、公用事業、工業、醫療衛生保健、證券、能源與材料、科技

        數據來自:彭博社

         

        貴州茅臺等必需消費品企業盡管很受投資者青睞,但他們的盈利能力在過去三年也受到了通貨緊縮上行壓力的打擊。對這些企業來說,私有化或將是更好的選擇,并入像阿里巴巴這樣的國際企業或眾多中國創業公司。這些公司科技水平高,且更加敏捷靈巧,更易于落實新的想法,迎合快速變化的新潮流。

         


        產能過剩水平

        資產收益率

        從上至下依次為:

        必需消費品、通訊、房地產、非必需消費品、公用事業、醫療衛生保健、工業、證券、能源與材料、科技

        數據來自:彭博社

         

        多數行業部門資產收益率均呈下落趨勢,可見國家經濟整體面臨嚴重的產能過剩。今年1月,國務院宣布計劃減少1億到1.5億噸鋼鐵產能,但未提及具體時間表。美國經濟預測機構環球透視(IHS Global Insight)估計,中國鋼鐵企業2015年由于價格暴跌,損失約120億美元。國務院稱,煤炭行業的產能也會“相對大幅”削減。

         

        去杠桿化是否已經開始?

        總資產/資產凈值

        從上至下依次為:

        房地產、非必需消費品、工業、證券、公用事業、能源與材料、科技、醫療衛生保健、通訊、必需消費品

        數據來自:彭博社

         

        上月接受彭博社總編輯約翰·米可斯維特采訪時,摩根大通集團首席執行官杰米·戴蒙表示,中國也許認為健康的股市有助于減少企業的債務負擔,所以想在一些國有企業通過股權融資去杠桿。此舉原因很明顯,中國的企業,尤其是龐大笨重的房地產開發商,都在靠很少的資產凈值支撐巨大的資產總額。不難想象,股權融資之后,為了不讓貸款方對國企的財務狀況失去信心,中國自然會放任股價虛高。然而中國需要的,是真正的去杠桿。

         


        債務清償難度

        利息/息稅前利潤

        從上至下依次為:

        能源與材料、科技、工業、公用事業、證券、非必需消費品、醫療衛生保健、房地產、必需消費品、通訊

        數據來自:彭博社

         

        考慮到鋼鐵行業產量嚴重過剩,需要向全世界兜售,或許也就不難理解為什么國有煤炭鋼鐵企業及其他能源與材料企業的償債負擔最重了。數據顯示,在能源與材料行業,繳付利息與息稅前利潤的比例在去年激增到34%,超過其他國有行業。分析人士也曾質疑政府去產能的努力。惠譽評級稱, 2015年被叫停的廠家產能共計6000萬噸,其中只有1700萬噸,即不到三分之一被永久關停。

         

        當然,這并不是說政府無意也無力徹底改革國企。《東亞研究期刊》2009年的一篇文章提到,上世紀90年代初,政府致力建立“社會主義市場經濟”時,國企總數為11.3萬家,1998年減少到6.5萬, 2005年前后減少到2.7萬。據摩根斯坦利的分析人士估算,國企數目現在已經減少到2萬,其中110家為中央企業。

         

        每一步改變都令人擔憂,并可能引發當局希望竭力避免的社會動蕩。無論在哪個國家,既要避免經濟增速繼續下落,又要擺脫投資驅動型的發展模式,這種事情從來都需要謹慎穩妥權衡利弊。目前,中央應盡快實現這個平衡,因為數據顯示,他們的時間已所剩不多。

         

         

        Uncovering China's SOEs

        The malaise goes a lot deeper than coal miners and steelmakers.

        Three years after President Xi Jinping vowed to shake up state-owned enterprises, they're looking worse than ever. And not just in traditional smokestack industries such as coal and steel -- the malaise has spread to consumer and health-care firms.

         
         

        Gadfly examined 346 state-owned companies to gauge the progress of China's SOE reform, tracking the change in return on equity, return on assets, interest cover, financial leverage and accounts-receivable days between 2012, before Xi took office in March 2013, and last year.

         
         

        As the resulting five charts show, the problems go deeper than those faced by coal miners and steelmakers. Zombie-like characteristics also exist in consumer-staples companies and health-care firms. Outside of utilities like China General Nuclear Power, practically every part of China's economy touched by state ownership has serious issues, either in terms of the amount of debt companies owe or investor returns. Even tech outfits score low on profitability and return on assets.

         
         

        Whatever promise China's unreformed SOEs may have once held has long turned to disappointment. While the government continues to insist on an overhaul of its sclerotic state firms, its efforts to prop up the economy are bearing fruit -- reducing the pressure for change. Commodity prices are rebounding, there are green shoots in the property market, and the Shanghai A-share stock index is up 11 percent from its January low. All that, paradoxically, is bad news, because it lends an air of complacency to Xi's much-vaunted push to shake up China's bloated conglomerates.

         
         

        Huge amounts of leverage and inefficiency aren't the bailiwick of commodities players and shipbuilders any longer. And with debt-fueled growth showing signs of making a comeback, it may be years before Beijing's resolve to clean up the mess is tested.

        SOE1

        Industrial companies, including trainmakers and shipbuilders, now wait an average of 106 days to get paid. Little wonder these SOEs rank among the highest on China's reform to-do list. Some progress has been made but changes haven't gone far enough. In December, China Ocean Shipping Group was merged with China Shipping Group in the hope that combined, they could improve their collective bargaining power in a shipping industry plagued by overcapacity and slowing trade. Last June, China CNR Corp. teamed with CSR Corp. to create CRRC Corp., a train equipment maker to challenge the likes of Germany's Siemens.

        SOE2

        While consumer-staples firms including liquor maker Kweichou Moutai are favored by investors, the sector's profitability has taken a hit over the past three years as deflationary pressures mount. Perhaps some of these businesses would be better in private hands, run by, for example, the Alibabas of the world, or one of the country's many startups. These more nimble, tech-savvy companies are better placed to execute on ideas quickly and embrace rapidly changing trends.

        SOE3

        Return on assets has fallen in most industries, illustrating the rampant glut China faces economy-wide. The State Council said in January it plans to cut steel production capacity by 100 million to 150 million tons, without specifying a time frame. Facing a slump in prices, China's steel producers lost an estimated $12 billion in 2015, according to IHS Global Insight. Coal production capacity will also be reduced on a ``a relatively large scale,'' the State Council said.

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